Sunday, January 29, 2017

Demonetization is a pain with no benefits

As Narendra modi's boldest move failed to nail out corruption and black money in any manner, now the move is seeming as an intention to help elite business men of the nation who give crores as party fund to BJP.
Economists like Amartya sen, RBI ex governor YV Reddy, Arun Kumar etc,right from the first day criticized the move. Now demonetization failed in all aspects
1. corruption : we saw many bribery cases with new notes. The sources of corruption are not effected.
2. black money : we saw almost all black money is converted white. Black money in the form of gold, assets, foreign investment, crypto currency emerged.
3. terror financing : we saw some terrorists in kashmir have new notes with them days after demonetisation.
4. fake currency : After all american dollar had highest fake currency, fake currency of new notes will emerge soon as the sources of fake currency are not caught. RBI too didn't have any data.
5. people lost jobs ; In medium and small sector 35% of people lost jobs ,and revenue is down by atleast 50%. small compsanies are unable to recover even now as only 24000 per week is now enough for a small company to survive.1 2 3 4
6. labour effected : All cash dependent labour lost jobs for atleast 2 months.
7. Hawala transctions: They lost their business only for a month and started doing business with new currency. You already saw crores of rupees with many people.
8. Banks lost reputation : bankers are brought into corruption
9. RBI failure: RBI failed to address the concerns and troubled common man only and no big politician is caught in the process.
10. Rupee lost reputation: along with India, Indian rupee is used highly in Nepal and Bhutan. Now Nepal altogether banned rupee, Rupee transactions stopped in Bhutan also. Now chinese yuan is emerging as secondary currency in Nepal, although it cannot completely replace rupee it hugely effects Indian prospects.
11. tourism sector: Both domestic and international tourism fell to zero.
12. deaths: many people died not just for lack of money but for losing jobs, self-employment losses, lack of daily wages.,,
13. Growth rate effected: India's GDP growth rate fell by atleast one percent than the projected
14. FDI outflow: All the good news of growing FDI in last few years is lost
15. GST delayed: GST is apparently delayed due to this
16. Agriculture: farmers are hugely hit as they are unable to sow crops in time as their money is struck mostly in co-operative banks
The list of disadvantages is not ending and I did not find any advantage of the move. They say it helped rise of cashless economy. Is the economy cash less now? We already saw the disadvantages of existing cashless economy like paytm- SBI- HDFC dispute, freecharge dispute, hanging of apps like paytm, BHIM,others,. India lacks infrastructure for cashless economy now, India is already moving cashless and preple are using paytm, netbanking from years on this move only made those applications hang. After an year when small banks, payments banks and Postal payment bank becomes operational we can see rise in cashless economy. Demonetization bringing cashless economy is a myth.
Narendra Modi with the help of newspapers like Eenadu which became his pamphlet in recent times bluffed you. The reality is different. Demonetization is a move to help BigBazaar, Reliance Jio, Paytm etc., who generally give thousands of crores of rupees to BJP as election funding.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Death of traditional retail entrepreneurship with Demonetization

          The most important effect of demonetization is the change in spending habits of people. The biggest benefactors are Future Group's Big Bazaar and Reliance JIO. On January 16, 2017 Future Group”s founder and CEO kishore Biyani said their sales are up by 20%, Where does this additional market come to it? It is not new market.
With a push to cashless economy people need internet on all times in their mobile.As Reliance JIO is only offering free data for limited period it became the only destination. What is the conspiracy for doing demonetization in just a couple of months after JIO is launched?
           As these groups have more quaternary and quinary resources, better infrastructural resources, they adapted the change and attracted the existing consumers to them. Small Retail entrepreneurs lost their customers. 
           For the benefit of two giant capitalists lakhs of small entrepreneurs are affected. People employed in those small shops lost their employment. These giant groups on expansion will give employment, it is of no doubt. But entrepreneurs are becoming employees. Self- dependent people are becoming job dependent. The employment which will rise in these companies is much smaller than the lost employment due to demonetization as they are highly digitalized.
This impulsive move rang death bells in traditional retail entrepreneurship by changing the spending habits of people. This can be seen as permanent effect as once the customer tasted the ease in accessing these giants and their ability to offer goods at a subsidized rates because of their mass procurement of goods, common infrastructural facilities, availability of quaternary and quinary resources.

Demonetization is an out and out failed move of the government. It failed to root out black money, corruption. The cashless economy which Govt dreamed is not achieved as it cannot be achieved. Demonetization not just ruined the small industry nut also ruined country's macro economic parameters like Growth Rate, Rupee value, FDI,....